m00n
0x3f02a8b650d4b30449e83616f2165460209ca51c
- Realised P&L
- $23.7k
- Volume
- $12.73M
- Markets traded
- 202
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded202
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.440 | 0.425 | $2.1k | −$75.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.013 | $171.89 | +$56.74 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.8kat 0.055Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$29.9kat 0.074Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$21.2kat 0.017No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$20.6kat 0.002US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$14.0kat 0.007Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 14:45 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.753 | $116.42 |
| 07-28 18:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.784 | $659.34 |
| 07-27 23:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.733 | $58.64 |
| 07-27 14:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.729 | $310.55 |
| 07-27 01:01 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.801 | $232.29 |
| 07-25 03:36 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $48.00 |
| 07-25 03:34 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $96.00 |
| 07-24 17:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $16.26 |
| 07-23 23:51 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.246 | $98.40 |
| 07-21 21:35 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.153 | $3.83 |
| 07-21 21:34 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.153 | $131.60 |
| 07-21 21:20 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.158 | $31.60 |
| 07-21 21:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.164 | $439.81 |
| 07-21 20:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $18.00 |
| 07-21 18:27 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.1583301754 | $589.78 |