PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

RewardsMafia

0x3eedf40fc4b73cf145b6e5e35d7c6ca645e4cb2a

Realised P&L
$-83.5k
Volume
$3.50M
Markets traded
172
Open portfolio
$109.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded172
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8660.958$47.6k+$4.6k
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8720.950$19.5k+$1.6k
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.7530.682$10.2k$1.1k
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No0.8420.856$10.1k+$167.53
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? · No0.9200.897$7.2k$183.13
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No0.8450.920$6.1k+$494.86
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.5170.335$3.9k$2.1k
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No0.9500.944$2.8k$19.88
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%? · No0.6870.937$785.51+$209.35
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.8590.920$727.23+$48.84
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No0.8800.955$352.46+$27.68
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1800.135$38.49$12.83
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%? · No0.6100.479$36.81$10.07
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%? · Yes0.2760.025$17.81$178.54
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4% and 5%? · Yes0.2200.003$0.83$72.59

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-07 06:55Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.755$3.77
08-01 17:16Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?SELL0.0717845015$103.58
07-02 13:27Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY0.7382239588$249.39
07-02 13:25Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?BUY0.75$224.94
07-02 13:01Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?BUY0.3108369267$222.02
07-02 13:01Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?BUY0.1550578116$891.14
07-02 13:01Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?BUY0.17$634.46
07-02 13:01Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.14$205.88
07-02 13:01Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.36$1000.00
07-01 12:50Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be negative?BUY0.88$10.45
07-01 11:13Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?BUY0.31$47.60
07-01 06:20Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?BUY0.8395420181$249.86
07-01 01:25Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?BUY0.78$240.74
06-30 22:43Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?BUY0.67$232.64
06-30 17:48Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?BUY0.1356016547$22.29