justcris
0x3ea9eace9fb326bf87244ac7ab444980207a1a0a
- Realised P&L
- $-23.29
- Volume
- $283.35
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $1.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.27at 0.314England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$4.88at 0.757Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
- +$2.39at 0.595Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
- +$2.00at 0.341Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?
- +$1.58at 0.763Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 18:29 | Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 18:29 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 18:27 | Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 19:06 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.827999894 | $1.00 |
| 08-08 19:06 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 16:24 | Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 16:24 | Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999755 | $2.00 |
| 07-24 16:24 | Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299998672 | $3.00 |
| 07-24 16:19 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 16:18 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7379993683 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 17:38 | Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 17:37 | Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.033999968 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 17:37 | Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 17:37 | Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 17:35 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |