PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

sergak0

0x3d395a8535476be6fdf2bd2aae381c47573980ff

Realised P&L
$-284.31
Volume
$3.3k
Markets traded
60
Open portfolio
$182.79

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-8.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded60
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration34.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample30 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? · No0.3450.735$29.40+$15.60
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · No0.3701.000$25.97+$16.36
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? · No0.5350.540$21.53+$0.20
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31? · No0.7870.690$15.87−$2.24
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000? · No0.6480.677$13.55+$0.59
Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $25 in 2026? · No0.7400.675$13.50−$1.30
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? · No0.6800.645$12.90−$0.70
Will Trump say "Beat Meat" during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · No0.7601.000$12.64+$3.03
Will Atsumi Harasawa win the 2026 Yokohama mayoral election? · Yes0.5600.620$12.40+$1.20
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · No0.6500.545$10.90−$2.10
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%? · No0.6600.557$8.36−$1.54
Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026? · Yes0.2300.175$2.47−$0.78
Will PAIS win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election? · Yes0.1700.240$1.20+$0.35
Will Gemini Spark be available on the free plan by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.275$1.10−$0.30
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes0.3300.024$0.94−$12.26

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-10 19:35Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ETBUY0.9199999961$9.34
10-10 19:00Will Trump say "Korea" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?BUY0.3899999951$14.25
10-10 10:51Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ETBUY0.8799999962$9.34
10-10 06:41Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ETBUY0.9099999971$9.34
10-10 02:10Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ETBUY0.8$9.34
10-10 01:45Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETBUY0.7299999888$9.81
10-10 01:44Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETBUY0.0899999985$1.77
10-10 01:41Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETBUY0.2$2.36
10-10 01:41Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETBUY0.2099999983$6.04
10-10 01:41Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETBUY0.2699999663$1.92
10-10 01:40Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETBUY0.4899999888$9.65
10-10 01:36Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ETBUY0.63$9.45
10-10 01:32Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ETBUY0.4899999821$4.39
10-10 01:30Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ETBUY0.7099999993$9.79
10-10 01:29Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETBUY0.08$1.92