PolyBot

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Traders

Wagmi420

0x3d1487b9a384635dcd7e438eb183e95351b5ee01

Realised P&L
$-13.0k
Volume
$2.58M
Markets traded
766
Open portfolio
$708.92

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded766
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration36.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration59.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.7040.825$422.40+$62.00
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2110.175$84.88−$17.53
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? · No0.9400.971$58.14+$1.83
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0600.040$39.50−$20.50
Stripe IPO before 2027? · Yes0.1110.045$32.36−$47.61
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? · Yes0.0500.021$21.00−$29.00
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3570.060$18.00−$89.00
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · Yes0.7960.045$11.16−$186.23
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.0740.018$9.25−$27.75
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1700.080$8.00−$9.00
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2700.050$3.24−$14.42
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.0320.001$1.00−$63.00
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00−$19.99
Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.8600.000$0.00−$200.72
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.4250.000$0.00−$85.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-18 20:04Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9939833333$894.58
08-18 20:02Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?BUY0.983$39.32
08-15 15:01Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL0.0142287729$32.64
08-15 15:01Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL0.024$51.64
08-15 15:01US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?BUY0.9936035521$1000.00
07-19 22:00Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.0574999982$30.00
07-18 23:00Will France win on 2026-07-18?SELL0.0015034568$2.32
07-18 22:54Will France win on 2026-07-18?BUY0.006$9.26
07-18 22:33Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?BUY0.017580598$11.18
07-15 21:09Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.6612857896$727.72
07-15 20:30England vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total CornersBUY0.8358058518$1000.00
07-15 19:50US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL0.4943218279$1.9k
07-15 19:21Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsBUY0.3299999989$150.00
07-15 19:19England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5BUY0.5874999994$300.00
07-15 19:16Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.546$272.99