masch77
0x3cc46df7efcad883844b21f862263e04040fcb44
- Realised P&L
- $-143.48
- Volume
- $22.2k
- Markets traded
- 380
- Open portfolio
- $100.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded380
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.652 | 0.750 | $60.37 | +$7.87 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.700 | $16.67 | +$11.67 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.605 | $11.75 | +$6.75 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.610 | $2.44 | +$1.44 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.750 | $1.88 | +$0.88 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.875 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.967 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.941 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.983 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.974 | 0.982 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.100 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.016 | $0.26 | −$3.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$126.78at 0.202Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$36.87at 0.447Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
- +$19.41at 0.531Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 10?
- +$19.14at 0.450Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
- +$18.95at 0.082Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 21:24 | Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? | BUY | 0.696586479 | $2.00 |
| 07-15 21:23 | Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.102611854 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 21:22 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:22 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3693965905 | $3.00 |
| 07-15 21:22 | Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 07-15 21:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2574257166 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 20:53 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3589999695 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 20:37 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.104 | $3.03 |
| 07-14 20:20 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.57 |
| 07-14 19:25 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.254 | $2.88 |
| 07-04 21:03 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 07-04 00:06 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0689999387 | $1.00 |