FortunatelyFestive
0x3cafe19c407342bc7cea21424e861c37038c6d8a
- Realised P&L
- $68.8k
- Volume
- $1.99M
- Markets traded
- 205
- Open portfolio
- $4.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded205
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.8kat 0.549MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$19.3kat 0.838Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- +$15.0kat 0.854Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- +$6.6kat 0.911Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$2.6kat 0.608Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 00:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9547725496 | $143.00 |
| 08-25 00:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.33 | $137.38 |
| 08-20 17:27 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $83.26 |
| 08-20 17:27 | Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? | SELL | 0.9254344541 | $97.99 |
| 08-15 11:02 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.95500221 | $100.00 |
| 08-15 11:02 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.43 | $222.31 |
| 08-05 16:50 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.9629999999 | $320.00 |
| 07-31 19:56 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.5821327804 | $415.53 |
| 07-31 19:53 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.6208882297 | $1.8k |
| 07-31 18:14 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $436.73 |
| 07-31 18:13 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $333.02 |
| 07-31 18:12 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $795.42 |
| 07-31 18:00 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.8999999996 | $683.00 |
| 07-31 16:48 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $680.00 |
| 07-31 07:35 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $930.00 |