PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

FortunatelyFestive

0x3cafe19c407342bc7cea21424e861c37038c6d8a

Realised P&L
$68.8k
Volume
$1.99M
Markets traded
205
Open portfolio
$4.8k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded205
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8600.925$1.5k+$106.37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7720.835$1.1k+$84.92
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.4250.786$938.84+$430.98
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No0.9630.993$329.80+$9.80
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.8670.961$255.22+$24.93
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.7930.175$218.55$771.54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.8620.982$116.31+$14.14
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · No0.8010.921$115.00+$15.06
NATO article 5 before 2027? · No0.9550.939$98.32$1.68
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.4740.037$41.09$485.19
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes0.8950.160$38.07$175.00
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No0.9100.925$9.15+$0.15
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.1840.004$2.47$98.74
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.0680.004$1.33$18.67

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-25 00:10Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?BUY0.9547725496$143.00
08-25 00:09Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.33$137.38
08-20 17:27Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL0.94$83.26
08-20 17:27Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?SELL0.9254344541$97.99
08-15 11:02NATO article 5 before 2027?BUY0.95500221$100.00
08-15 11:02Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.43$222.31
08-05 16:50Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.9629999999$320.00
07-31 19:56Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?SELL0.5821327804$415.53
07-31 19:53Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?SELL0.6208882297$1.8k
07-31 18:14Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.9$436.73
07-31 18:13Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL0.94$333.02
07-31 18:12US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?SELL0.982$795.42
07-31 18:00Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.8999999996$683.00
07-31 16:48Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.92$680.00
07-31 07:35Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.87$930.00