Michael5289
0x3c760e45728e0cb4b68c52980a070314b95fd4ee
- Realised P&L
- $37.6k
- Volume
- $1.99M
- Markets traded
- 2,401
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded2,401
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.191Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?
- +$1.9kat 0.380Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?
- +$1.5kat 0.998James Comey arrested by September 30?
- +$1.5kat 0.046Will U.S. tourism decline in April?
- +$1.3kat 0.997North Korea missile launch by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:42 | Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in September? | BUY | 0.98 | $49.00 |
| 09-17 18:39 | Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in September? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.52 |
| 09-17 18:39 | Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in September? | BUY | 0.96 | $24.00 |
| 09-16 00:47 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.88 |
| 09-16 00:47 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 15? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.88 |
| 09-15 20:38 | Will Scott Bessent give the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.99 |
| 09-14 23:53 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $30.23 |
| 09-14 23:51 | Will Taylor Rogers give the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.993 | $89.37 |
| 09-14 23:50 | Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.93 | $13.29 |
| 09-14 23:46 | Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.97 | $38.80 |
| 09-14 23:44 | Will Taylor Rogers give the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.993 | $49.65 |
| 09-14 23:43 | Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.97 | $18.38 |
| 09-14 23:43 | Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.20 |
| 09-14 21:46 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | BUY | 0.997 | $49.85 |
| 09-14 20:31 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 11 and September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $49.85 |