eightpenguins
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
- Realised P&L
- $356.9k
- Volume
- $6.63M
- Markets traded
- 616
- Open portfolio
- $103.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded616
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.4kat 0.281US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$55.2kat 0.348US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$30.9kat 0.399US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$24.7kat 0.206Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?
- +$24.0kat 0.992MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $19.8k |
| 08-02 15:00 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $132.84 |
| 08-02 14:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $669.13 |
| 08-02 14:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $3.17 |
| 08-02 02:42 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY | 0.1855282005 | $4.14 |
| 08-02 02:38 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | BUY | 0.28 | $572.60 |
| 08-02 02:38 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.1999829324 | $834.26 |
| 08-02 02:38 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | BUY | 0.0284465043 | $63.71 |
| 08-02 02:37 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.6267658006 | $2.1k |
| 08-01 23:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.3k |
| 08-01 20:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7 | $166.45 |
| 08-01 18:48 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.8154831132 | $4.5k |
| 08-01 18:43 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $355.34 |
| 08-01 18:42 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $705.96 |
| 08-01 17:14 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $52.02 |