PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

skond

0x3bc4ee038c22c3283fc565ab8cdcac731877867d

Realised P&L
$-184.63
Volume
$1.5k
Markets traded
22
Open portfolio
$24.90

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-12.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded22
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration63.7% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration69.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1700.295$17.35+$7.35
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.5300.065$4.05$28.95
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · Yes0.0320.010$3.16$6.84
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? · Yes0.3000.050$0.33$1.67
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.7600.000$0.00$50.00
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.5300.000$0.00$23.50
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? · No0.2800.000$0.00$4.00
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? · Yes0.3880.000$0.00$18.47
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? · Yes0.1510.000$0.00$3.87
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 18? · No0.0070.000$0.00$2.00
Maduro out in 2025? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00$3.00
Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? · Yes0.0310.000$0.00$3.00
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$3.00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes0.3500.000$0.00$3.00
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No0.2000.000$0.00$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-06 11:44NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1699999871$10.00
07-06 11:43Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?BUY0.0316254362$10.00
07-06 11:41Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?BUY0.5889999848$15.00
07-06 11:40Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.4099999959$30.00
01-13 18:16Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?BUY0.5299999971$23.50
01-13 18:15US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?BUY0.759999997$50.00
01-13 18:14Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.5299999929$33.00
12-30 11:33Will the match end in a draw or not be completed?SELL0.1012010017$6.06
12-29 23:38Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?SELL0.012$0.53
12-29 19:06Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.4199999454$2.00
12-29 19:05US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?BUY0.299999925$2.00
12-29 19:01Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?BUY0.3499999475$3.00
12-29 19:00Will the match end in a draw or not be completed?BUY0.050081654$3.00
12-17 22:32Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?BUY0.0652135934$2.90
12-17 22:31Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.2$2.00