0x3b42a4c49ad03ed6ba8ad02636d81d2f37dca7a1
0x3b42a4c49ad03ed6ba8ad02636d81d2f37dca7a1
- Realised P&L
- $0.62
- Volume
- $273.75
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $6.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.590 | 0.835 | $2.41 | +$0.71 |
| Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.988 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.885 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in September? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.495 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.091 | $0.36 | −$0.64 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.070 | $0.23 | −$0.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.26at 0.380US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.08at 0.400Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$2.82at 0.422Will CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.95at 0.512Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 02:33 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 18:19 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 08:43 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2539999919 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 00:38 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 in September? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:00 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 05:06 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 00:59 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 16:25 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 08:11 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 05:35 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 21:11 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 11:39 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 13:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 00:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 14:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |