Fourkoy
0x3b0123f5e9915e58760fa4a79ce702e0b8755b36
- Realised P&L
- $-376.33
- Volume
- $56.4k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.584 | 0.865 | $317.17 | +$103.17 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.487 | 0.825 | $247.50 | +$101.50 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.680 | 0.991 | $198.09 | +$62.10 |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.538 | 0.530 | $176.06 | −$2.64 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.675 | $160.62 | +$3.62 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.895 | $151.69 | +$51.70 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.115 | $95.83 | −$4.17 |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.460 | $85.19 | −$14.81 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.691 | 0.845 | $76.82 | +$14.03 |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? · Yes | 0.483 | 0.645 | $66.76 | +$16.76 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$400.02at 0.796US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
- +$388.41at 0.647US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
- +$329.41at 0.680US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
- +$312.43at 0.526Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$306.43at 0.350Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 01:44 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999997 | $78.00 |
| 09-11 23:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.19 | $81.18 |
| 09-08 01:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999975 | $79.00 |
| 09-07 02:23 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.51 | $51.00 |
| 09-04 02:13 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5499999937 | $26.00 |
| 09-04 02:12 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.55 | $100.00 |
| 09-04 02:12 | Will The Odyssey win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5399999981 | $100.00 |
| 09-03 04:41 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5499998706 | $1.70 |
| 09-01 07:36 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 07:27 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 07:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.6502929287 | $111.00 |
| 09-01 01:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4399999981 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 01:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.669999995 | $20.00 |
| 08-25 02:19 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $13.85 |
| 08-24 02:58 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |