fcapanij27
0x3ad3b0305564662bc87179f437861d2034ac8344
- Realised P&L
- $-51.51
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $131.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.98at 0.648US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
- +$23.48at 0.460Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$17.91at 0.588US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
- +$9.03at 0.830Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
- +$7.39at 0.710Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 12:49 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $25.00 |
| 10-07 12:48 | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting? | BUY | 0.2993664926 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 12:46 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 18:06 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.91 |
| 09-02 19:58 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 19:31 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0581280526 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 19:30 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.022999978 | $1.00 |
| 06-29 22:37 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4399999894 | $10.00 |
| 05-05 00:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 04-30 13:11 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.994 | $20.69 |
| 04-12 00:37 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.7199999885 | $14.99 |
| 03-30 10:17 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.28 | $14.95 |
| 03-25 00:52 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5099999991 | $27.23 |
| 03-25 00:51 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $27.23 |
| 03-23 20:56 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0309999886 | $2.61 |