PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

winubet

0x3a91442a725581d4147d3a34bde3dceb41733428

Realised P&L
$-828.39
Volume
$19.9k
Markets traded
224
Open portfolio
$283.81

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded224
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30? · Yes0.5300.835$41.75+$15.25
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · No0.6600.705$35.25+$2.25
Will "Pluribus" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? · Yes0.6401.000$29.80+$10.73
Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election? · No0.3800.315$25.20$5.20
Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? · Yes0.6201.000$20.00+$7.60
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30? · No0.7700.999$19.97+$4.57
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? · Yes0.6400.255$12.75$19.25
Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? · No0.6800.635$12.70$0.90
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Yes0.6200.245$12.25$18.75
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30? · No0.7000.545$10.90$3.10
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k? · No0.4800.420$8.40$1.20
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? · No0.3500.165$8.25$9.25
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes0.3000.185$7.40$4.60
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece? · No0.3100.205$6.15$3.15
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026? · No0.7900.145$5.61$24.96

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-02 09:30S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 2?BUY0.87$2.61
08-28 13:22S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 28?BUY0.988$9.87
08-26 13:26S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 26?BUY0.985$49.25
08-26 10:41S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 26?BUY0.63$66.15
08-26 10:41S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 26?BUY0.62$3.10
08-21 09:26S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 21?BUY0.9$195.80
08-13 07:43Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?SELL0.27$5.40
08-12 05:52Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by fire?SELL0.4$8.00
08-11 23:03Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?SELL0.48$9.60
08-09 06:15Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?SELL0.37$7.40
08-08 14:29Will Paper Rex Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?SELL0.39$3.63
08-08 05:34Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on August 31, 2026?SELL0.61$12.20
08-05 21:05Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?SELL0.771$38.55
08-04 13:06Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?SELL0.51$25.50
08-03 23:27No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.53$26.50