kekkone
0x39d0f1dca6fb7e5514858c1a337724a426764fe8
- Realised P&L
- $150.4k
- Volume
- $7.24M
- Markets traded
- 1,786
- Open portfolio
- $54.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,786
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.1kat 0.344Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025?
- +$7.2kat 0.533Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$5.8kat 0.677US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.839Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$5.7kat 0.648Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 19:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.28 | $56.00 |
| 11-02 18:49 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.6k |
| 11-02 18:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.69 |
| 11-02 12:13 | Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | BUY | 0.48 | $50.40 |
| 11-02 11:38 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.32 | $640.00 |
| 11-02 11:37 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.091 | $182.00 |
| 11-02 10:36 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.72 | $1.4k |
| 11-02 07:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $58.24 |
| 11-02 07:20 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $390.00 |
| 11-01 18:48 | Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? | SELL | 0.4923736 | $123.09 |
| 11-01 14:35 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.7667250356 | $1.8k |
| 11-01 05:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $81.36 |
| 11-01 05:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $26.75 |
| 11-01 05:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $7.75 |
| 10-31 08:45 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | SELL | 0.7309884141 | $707.90 |