CryptoOG-846
0x3826a44ef6c9193ba8705346c5daef55ca861e9d
- Realised P&L
- $44.86
- Volume
- $68.10
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $11.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar65.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.384 | 0.463 | $9.26 | +$1.58 |
| Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.198 | $1.60 | +$0.10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET · Down | 0.050 | 0.005 | $0.50 | −$4.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET · Down | 0.289 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET · Up | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.86at 0.356Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 10:39 | Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.1849106029 | $8.89 |
| 10-10 10:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 10:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 10:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 10:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 10-10 10:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | SELL | 0.9679801415 | $71.17 |
| 10-10 10:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | BUY | 0.3399999989 | $25.00 |
| 10-10 08:39 | Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.185 | $8.90 |
| 10-10 08:38 | Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.384 | $7.68 |