Serega
0x37c500e9092b4ab0eb0687b330270b747974bd4e
- Realised P&L
- $-4.9k
- Volume
- $198.9k
- Markets traded
- 244
- Open portfolio
- $279.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded244
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.795 | $79.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.650 | $65.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.051 | $60.60 | −$1.30 |
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.580 | $58.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.070 | $7.00 | −$17.00 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.024 | $4.70 | −$15.30 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.021 | $4.20 | −$23.80 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.185Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
- +$816.40at 0.219Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?
- +$525.69at 0.081Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
- +$356.74at 0.640Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?
- +$304.38at 0.180Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 14:13 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M? | BUY | 0.61 | $61.00 |
| 10-18 14:13 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.70 |
| 10-18 14:13 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? | BUY | 0.84 | $10.50 |
| 10-03 10:41 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $6.81 |
| 09-10 13:11 | Will PSV vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2 | $24.00 |
| 09-10 13:11 | Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-09-10? | BUY | 0.16 | $17.60 |
| 08-21 09:45 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.039 | $42.90 |
| 07-21 11:23 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.363 | $11.65 |
| 07-20 14:13 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.211 | $21.10 |
| 07-20 12:12 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $6.08 |
| 07-19 22:35 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | SELL | 0.9975 | $99.75 |
| 07-19 17:44 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.32 | $32.00 |
| 07-19 17:43 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2625 | $26.25 |
| 07-19 16:55 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.41 | $131.20 |
| 07-18 21:20 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.73 | $146.00 |