SBFDRT
0x371c90ad624763ddfe3c0b889b5fdc2ddd61806c
- Realised P&L
- $358.06
- Volume
- $25.5k
- Markets traded
- 133
- Open portfolio
- $12.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded133
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.829 | 0.972 | $3.68 | +$0.54 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.969 | $2.30 | +$0.12 |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? · No | 0.758 | 0.955 | $2.29 | +$0.47 |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.977 | $2.05 | +$0.06 |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.832 | 0.994 | $1.65 | +$0.27 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.046 | $0.11 | −$1.67 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17? · Up | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.78 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.69 |
| Suns vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Mavericks vs. Magic · Magic | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.73 |
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? · No | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.96 |
| Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.47 |
| Astros vs. Red Sox · Astros | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$207.56at 0.840US forces enter Iran by March 14?
- +$123.82at 0.970Celtics vs. Knicks
- +$15.14at 0.610US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$4.43at 0.220Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?
- +$3.01at 0.997Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 03:35 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.7699999048 | $1.78 |
| 09-18 10:45 | Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Marat Sharipov | BUY | 0.8299999679 | $2.07 |
| 09-08 07:06 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.7399999103 | $1.98 |
| 09-08 07:06 | Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.654 | $1.09 |
| 08-23 10:55 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.99 |
| 08-23 10:54 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $1.09 |
| 08-13 11:10 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.73 |
| 08-06 11:11 | Will Trump pardon SBF by December 31? | BUY | 0.9399999888 | $1.68 |
| 07-30 08:07 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $1.74 |
| 07-23 11:29 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? | BUY | 0.7699999074 | $1.58 |
| 07-16 12:00 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July? | BUY | 0.8499999761 | $1.78 |
| 07-09 09:36 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 9? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.58 |
| 07-09 09:36 | Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.52 | $1.59 |
| 07-01 14:02 | Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | BUY | 0.9779999917 | $1.64 |
| 06-24 15:25 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.859999821 | $1.73 |