0x34dfaf5490d5e78ef85fe62bff8b507611ddba27
0x34dfaf5490d5e78ef85fe62bff8b507611ddba27
- Realised P&L
- $80.12
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $35.48
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.770 | 0.986 | $9.98 | +$2.18 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.585 | $6.58 | +$1.18 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.795 | $4.89 | +$0.09 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.385 | $4.62 | −$0.78 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.410 | 0.425 | $3.40 | +$0.12 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.160 | $3.05 | −$4.95 |
| Spread: Independiente Medellín (-2.5) · Independiente Medellín | 0.280 | 0.275 | $1.57 | −$0.03 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.125 | $1.06 | −$0.21 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.032 | $0.33 | −$2.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.47at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$23.70at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$23.57at 0.260Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
- +$22.53at 0.268Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$16.24at 0.330Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E35?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 23:24 | Spread: Independiente Medellín (-2.5) | BUY | 0.279999986 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 13:15 | Fram Reykjavik vs. Breidablik Kopavogur: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.3799999383 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 12:33 | Fram Reykjavik vs. Breidablik Kopavogur: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.9399999765 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 12:33 | RKS Rakow Czestochowa vs. Zaglebie Lubin: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 11:37 | Will Beijing Guoan win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.6599999752 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 08:26 | Fram Reykjavik vs. Breidablik Kopavogur: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.8 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 04:38 | Korona Kielce vs. Gornik Zabrze: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.7799999122 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 04:38 | Korona Kielce vs. Gornik Zabrze: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5399999933 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 04:38 | Will IFK Varnamo win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.5099999841 | $1.60 |
| 09-14 23:40 | RKS Rakow Czestochowa vs. Zaglebie Lubin: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.7799999122 | $1.60 |
| 09-14 21:50 | IFK Varnamo vs. Osters IF: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6299998858 | $1.60 |
| 09-14 16:23 | Will Osters IF win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.7399999352 | $1.60 |
| 09-14 16:23 | Will Vikingur Reykjavik win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.7799999122 | $1.60 |
| 09-14 16:23 | Vikingur Reykjavik vs. Keflavik IF: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.5399999933 | $1.60 |
| 09-14 12:20 | Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.6499999797 | $1.60 |