0x34796213Bf8E746d943Ca9dd90126ba1D5bC0126-1771463027731
0x34796213bf8e746d943ca9dd90126ba1d5bc0126
- Realised P&L
- $-16.44
- Volume
- $580.13
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $8.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.025 | $1.82 | −$3.18 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · No | 0.590 | 1.000 | $1.69 | +$0.69 |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.035 | $1.44 | −$3.56 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.382 | 0.512 | $1.34 | +$0.34 |
| MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.055 | $0.73 | −$1.27 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.253 | 0.162 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.145 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.29at 0.070Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$3.94at 0.170Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
- +$2.08at 0.425Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
- +$1.74at 0.531Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
- +$1.74at 0.531Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 18:37 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 04-23 18:25 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $0.94 |
| 04-23 18:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 04-13 17:30 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 04-13 17:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $0.94 |
| 04-11 23:54 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.268999812 | $1.00 |
| 04-09 23:36 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 04-09 15:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | BUY | 0.54 | $0.93 |
| 04-09 15:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | BUY | 0.52 | $0.93 |
| 04-08 19:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $0.94 |
| 04-08 10:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.87 |
| 04-08 09:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $0.93 |
| 04-07 02:47 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 04-06 20:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | BUY | 0.5699998233 | $0.94 |
| 04-06 20:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | BUY | 0.54 | $0.93 |