PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Hermnann

0x3285ada1211d38e5c785a6a1a157d4224db6f63d

Realised P&L
$-292.70
Volume
$33.4k
Markets traded
91
Open portfolio
$3.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded91
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.7880.875$776.96+$76.96
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9120.960$736.73+$36.73
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.8950.915$715.91+$15.91
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9490.955$502.85+$2.85
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No0.9630.960$398.58$1.42
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Yes0.3590.115$140.10$296.90
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.7300.230$87.63$190.37
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.6400.195$60.94$139.06
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · Yes0.1470.170$17.32+$2.32
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.085$15.52$4.48
Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes0.5120.065$12.68$87.32
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes0.0700.064$6.36$0.64
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0430.021$4.99$5.01
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? · Yes0.1220.040$4.26$8.74
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.085$4.25$0.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-27 13:22Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0593448221$5.00
07-27 13:22Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0428636531$10.00
07-27 12:54Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0422585788$5.00
07-27 12:46Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?SELL0.1031435026$12.33
07-27 12:46Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?SELL0.08$15.20
07-24 11:10Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.9519999978$200.00
07-23 10:40Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1$5.00
07-23 10:17Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?BUY0.1583039554$6.00
07-23 10:17Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026?BUY0.1219750502$13.00
07-23 10:15Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?BUY0.0709525299$7.40
07-23 10:15Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?BUY0.0704364991$7.00
07-23 10:14Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?BUY0.140625$9.00
07-23 10:07Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9634237707$400.00
07-23 10:04Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?BUY0.5538194116$20.00
07-23 10:04Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?SELL0.293$11.18