Hermnann
0x3285ada1211d38e5c785a6a1a157d4224db6f63d
- Realised P&L
- $-349.56
- Volume
- $37.1k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$412.88at 0.174Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$223.01at 0.489Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$192.59at 0.520US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$144.84at 0.553Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
- +$108.04at 0.788Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 03:43 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $46.38 |
| 08-18 12:34 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.2399999964 | $40.00 |
| 08-18 12:34 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 12:33 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.9499999986 | $200.00 |
| 08-18 12:31 | Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? | BUY | 0.2782774536 | $20.00 |
| 08-18 12:28 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.9580898139 | $300.00 |
| 08-18 12:25 | Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0113919114 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 06:22 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $146.19 |
| 08-10 05:03 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.1883780584 | $20.00 |
| 08-10 05:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.4899999939 | $20.00 |
| 08-10 05:00 | Russia coup attempt in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 15:06 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $808.03 |
| 07-27 13:22 | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0593448221 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 13:22 | Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0428636531 | $10.00 |
| 07-27 12:54 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0422585788 | $5.00 |