PolyBot

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Traders

Hermnann

0x3285ada1211d38e5c785a6a1a157d4224db6f63d

Realised P&L
$-349.56
Volume
$37.1k
Markets traded
98
Open portfolio
$3.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded98
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.8950.945$739.39+$39.39
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9120.962$738.26+$38.26
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9490.956$503.38+$3.38
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No0.9630.963$399.62$0.38
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · No0.9580.959$300.28+$0.29
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9500.945$198.95$1.05
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.7300.125$47.62$230.38
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.6400.145$45.31$154.69
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? · Yes0.2780.175$12.58$7.42
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · Yes0.1470.102$10.34$4.66
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.055$10.04$9.96
Iran nuclear test before 2027? · Yes0.0500.049$9.80$0.20
Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes0.5120.045$8.78$91.22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.4900.175$7.14$12.86
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes0.0700.067$6.66$0.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-29 03:43Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?SELL0.17$46.38
08-18 12:34Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?BUY0.2399999964$40.00
08-18 12:34Iran nuclear test before 2027?BUY0.05$10.00
08-18 12:33Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.9499999986$200.00
08-18 12:31Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?BUY0.2782774536$20.00
08-18 12:28Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?BUY0.9580898139$300.00
08-18 12:25Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0113919114$2.00
08-12 06:22Cuban regime falls in 2026?SELL0.12$146.19
08-10 05:03Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?BUY0.1883780584$20.00
08-10 05:01Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.4899999939$20.00
08-10 05:00Russia coup attempt in 2026?BUY0.0699999874$5.00
08-04 15:06Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?SELL0.91$808.03
07-27 13:22Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0593448221$5.00
07-27 13:22Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0428636531$10.00
07-27 12:54Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0422585788$5.00