0x1b0CBD9980cfC5Caf2DEca2e7C3525cE140E9a84-1773608892906
0x3247dc03738107fdbcf9430c155a247339b03fcb
- Realised P&L
- $18.47
- Volume
- $5.3k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $479.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.765 | $267.75 | +$71.75 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.741 | 0.885 | $119.49 | +$19.49 |
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? · No | 0.710 | 0.785 | $55.32 | +$5.32 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.291 | 0.196 | $11.43 | −$5.57 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.610 | $10.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.570 | $7.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026? · No | 0.330 | 0.375 | $5.68 | +$0.68 |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.024 | $1.19 | −$1.81 |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.085 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.10at 0.792Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
- +$11.66at 0.440US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$11.61at 0.310Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?
- +$9.52at 0.840Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?
- +$9.41at 0.680US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 15:30 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999815 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 12:26 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.726958364 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 12:26 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 12:25 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $10.00 |
| 09-07 15:38 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31? | SELL | 0.49 | $31.61 |
| 08-31 15:56 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | SELL | 0.557 | $11.14 |
| 08-23 19:28 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0585834423 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 19:28 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2292358513 | $6.00 |
| 08-20 19:18 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2209998707 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 19:18 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 19:17 | UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $11.94 |
| 08-17 11:42 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.1529999767 | $5.00 |
| 08-17 11:41 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.1529999767 | $5.00 |
| 08-17 07:21 | NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? | BUY | 0.0979999177 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 07:19 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.953 | $21.65 |