0x31ff44447ca8efd8fca70c5f9192c37af6f898b4
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $445.8k
- Markets traded
- 576
- Open portfolio
- $123.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded576
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$259.83at 0.392Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$155.09at 0.199US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$94.76at 0.160US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$75.47at 0.194Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$51.65at 0.403Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 18:19 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.01 |
| 07-07 18:11 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.02 |
| 07-07 17:42 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.02 |
| 07-07 17:39 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.07 |
| 07-07 16:39 | Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? | BUY | 0.9849997472 | $1.50 |
| 07-07 16:36 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.29 |
| 07-07 16:14 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.08 |
| 07-07 14:25 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.02 |
| 07-07 13:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.04 |
| 07-07 08:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.27 |
| 07-07 06:58 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.01 |
| 07-07 06:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.01 |
| 07-07 05:44 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.16 |
| 07-07 05:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.01 |
| 07-07 03:16 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.08 |