0x3196fc1992b19294e7a5397a346539160fd9ec59
- Realised P&L
- $24.04
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $63.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.245 | $25.79 | +$5.79 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.330 | $22.30 | −$2.70 |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.205 | $12.81 | +$2.81 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.210 | $2.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.015 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.005 | $0.18 | −$19.82 |
| Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.001 | $0.10 | −$19.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.59at 0.113Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?
- +$17.80at 0.528Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$16.96at 0.748Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$13.55at 0.600Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$-2.00at 0.115Will France win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 16:51 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06? | BUY | 0.04 | $5.00 |
| 09-06 16:51 | Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.16 | $15.00 |
| 09-06 15:59 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300? | BUY | 0.0974195035 | $20.00 |
| 09-06 15:58 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | BUY | 0.599999994 | $20.00 |
| 09-06 15:57 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.1899999939 | $20.00 |
| 09-06 15:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999938 | $25.00 |
| 07-19 20:07 | Will Despacito be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show? | BUY | 0.2178112653 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 22:12 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.0389999963 | $10.00 |
| 07-04 23:06 | Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 07-04 23:01 | Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 10:31 | Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 05-20 00:56 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 05-17 02:44 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3737519478 | $19.90 |
| 05-14 17:36 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999893 | $49.75 |
| 04-11 21:32 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.4199999789 | $9.95 |