Bigsomething
0x318366cb3fe18323f28b294e8f7d987a91a1c5eb
- Realised P&L
- $-733.46
- Volume
- $86.7k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $429.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026 · Anthropic | 0.618 | 0.665 | $429.65 | +$30.20 |
| Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$272.35at 0.415GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
- +$171.07at 0.682Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?
- +$164.91at 0.666MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$160.34at 0.507MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?
- +$102.10at 0.724Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 06:56 | Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026 | BUY | 0.62 | $73.22 |
| 08-03 06:55 | Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026 | BUY | 0.61 | $15.25 |
| 07-31 07:34 | Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $29.60 |
| 07-31 07:32 | Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $35.51 |
| 07-30 06:15 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.81 |
| 07-30 03:30 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.24 | $9.60 |
| 07-30 03:10 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.241 | $28.92 |
| 07-30 03:01 | Will Claude go down 12+ times in July? | BUY | 0.723 | $12.20 |
| 07-30 03:01 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.28 | $12.60 |
| 07-30 00:37 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.266 | $13.30 |
| 07-30 00:25 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | SELL | 0.267 | $13.35 |
| 07-29 14:47 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | BUY | 0.828 | $24.01 |
| 07-29 13:02 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | BUY | 0.8278896263 | $41.48 |
| 07-29 13:02 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | BUY | 0.827 | $41.34 |
| 07-29 08:08 | Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | BUY | 0.827 | $99.24 |