Bigsomething
0x318366cb3fe18323f28b294e8f7d987a91a1c5eb
- Realised P&L
- $77.62
- Volume
- $120.6k
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $393.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour? · No | 0.740 | 0.845 | $293.21 | +$36.43 |
| Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours? · No | 0.744 | 0.870 | $60.90 | +$8.84 |
| Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? · No | 0.410 | 0.675 | $39.83 | +$15.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$382.05at 0.500Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
- +$305.42at 0.677MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$275.14at 0.692Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026?
- +$267.90at 0.452Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?
- +$260.96at 0.424GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 13:30 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours? | BUY | 0.78 | $39.78 |
| 10-03 13:10 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour? | BUY | 0.74 | $256.77 |
| 10-02 06:30 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours? | BUY | 0.62 | $11.78 |
| 10-02 03:15 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $24.19 |
| 10-02 02:24 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours? | BUY | 0.77 | $14.63 |
| 10-01 23:41 | Will there be fewer than 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $17.67 |
| 10-01 23:41 | Will there be fewer than 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $22.08 |
| 10-01 08:05 | Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $62.64 |
| 10-01 05:28 | Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $99.00 |
| 09-29 18:52 | Will Anthropic have the greatest valuation growth in September 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $118.80 |
| 09-28 23:34 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? | SELL | 0.9817859951 | $144.83 |
| 09-28 23:34 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? | SELL | 0.993 | $21.85 |
| 09-28 11:21 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? | SELL | 0.98 | $14.70 |
| 09-28 11:18 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? | SELL | 0.9803157895 | $18.63 |
| 09-28 11:18 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? | SELL | 0.986 | $8.87 |