PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

risard

0x3177b0d4bd2da653ef4a0dd28a7cf1cd5b0db264

Realised P&L
$287.63
Volume
$18.1k
Markets traded
21
Open portfolio
$2.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded21
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration67.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample9 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration44.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.6570.775$1.2k+$177.50
Anthropic IPO before 2027? · No0.3290.165$501.91−$497.95
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4380.195$442.96−$551.97
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4200.165$392.86−$607.14
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.3530.050$141.17−$856.49
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner · Team Spirit0.3600.000$0.00−$2.00
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner · BetBoom Team0.5300.000$0.00−$10.00
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage · PARIVISION0.3500.000$0.00−$5.00
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.3310.000$0.00−$881.28
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner · LGD Gaming0.3900.000$0.00−$6.00
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage · Team Falcons0.3900.000$0.00−$2.00
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs · Team Falcons0.4100.000$0.00−$10.00
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner · Team Liquid0.4300.000$0.00−$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-20 18:46US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.66$660.00
09-20 10:57US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.65$146.26
09-20 10:38Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4199999998$500.00
09-20 10:38Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4199999998$500.00
07-26 02:05Anthropic IPO before 2027?BUY0.3376190476$7.09
07-26 02:03Anthropic IPO before 2027?BUY0.34$142.49
07-26 00:37Anthropic IPO before 2027?BUY0.33$57.42
07-25 16:39Anthropic IPO before 2027?BUY0.32$6.40
07-25 16:13Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.341$35.80
07-25 16:12Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.331$845.47
07-25 15:25Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.45$149.85
07-25 15:15Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.36$340.20
07-25 15:10Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.35$657.47
07-25 11:40Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.44$316.18
07-25 00:38Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.43$326.65