risard
0x3177b0d4bd2da653ef4a0dd28a7cf1cd5b0db264
- Realised P&L
- $287.63
- Volume
- $18.1k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$818.10at 0.550Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$369.90at 0.730Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$8.15at 0.133Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
- +$6.53at 0.437Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
- +$3.37at 0.377Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 18:46 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $660.00 |
| 09-20 10:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $146.26 |
| 09-20 10:38 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4199999998 | $500.00 |
| 09-20 10:38 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4199999998 | $500.00 |
| 07-26 02:05 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.3376190476 | $7.09 |
| 07-26 02:03 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.34 | $142.49 |
| 07-26 00:37 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $57.42 |
| 07-25 16:39 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 07-25 16:13 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.341 | $35.80 |
| 07-25 16:12 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.331 | $845.47 |
| 07-25 15:25 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $149.85 |
| 07-25 15:15 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $340.20 |
| 07-25 15:10 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $657.47 |
| 07-25 11:40 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $316.18 |
| 07-25 00:38 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $326.65 |