sichup
0x30fa4f743ce7c48f4e8faf70c8b6481810a8079d
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $36.0k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $561.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.968 | $406.35 | +$322.35 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.608 | 0.774 | $154.90 | +$33.30 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$178.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$839.50at 0.417Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
- +$402.97at 0.424Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
- +$338.00at 0.837Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
- +$261.00at 0.700Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 06:19 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.608 | $121.60 |
| 07-08 02:16 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $84.00 |
| 04-16 08:36 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.7 | $105.00 |
| 11-10 02:14 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | SELL | 0.902 | $4.7k |
| 11-07 06:22 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | BUY | 0.837 | $4.4k |
| 10-28 06:51 | Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.43 | $6.45 |
| 10-28 06:50 | Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.429 | $17.16 |
| 10-28 06:44 | Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.427 | $25.62 |