0x3052776d06122dde8e1a86f2ed9defb97940232a
- Realised P&L
- $-246.04
- Volume
- $24.9k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $192.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes | 0.415 | 0.240 | $144.61 | −$105.39 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.042 | $27.67 | −$112.33 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.038 | $16.09 | −$33.91 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.017 | $4.42 | −$70.58 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.227 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.00 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? · Yes | 0.316 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$425.68at 0.370US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$297.87at 0.402US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$276.92at 0.520US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$188.29at 0.282Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
- +$158.13at 0.240Will Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 20:24 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.0274999974 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 20:23 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.0924999917 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 19:36 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.1924999928 | $21.00 |
| 07-09 19:01 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2274999948 | $25.00 |
| 07-09 19:00 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.1424999941 | $20.00 |
| 06-27 23:36 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 06-27 14:15 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.4149148034 | $250.00 |
| 06-27 13:59 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $27.00 |
| 06-22 11:11 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.961 | $200.21 |
| 06-14 13:25 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.3163946743 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 13:24 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.599999999 | $125.00 |
| 06-14 00:25 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.6299999977 | $60.00 |
| 04-07 01:20 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 04-06 15:42 | Will Trump say "Moon" during Monday news conference? | BUY | 0.5299933378 | $7.96 |
| 03-26 16:56 | Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "Minneapolis" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.996 | $19.15 |