HODLStrong
0x300d12ecde8020cea041c979d5f3963fe1ab978f
- Realised P&L
- $-357.42
- Volume
- $200.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,487
- Open portfolio
- $44.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,487
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on November 4? · No | 0.870 | 0.966 | $6.18 | +$0.61 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on November 3? · No | 0.880 | 0.950 | $5.99 | +$0.44 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on November 4? · No | 0.870 | 0.900 | $5.75 | +$0.19 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on November 2? · No | 0.860 | 0.982 | $5.65 | +$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 3? · No | 0.890 | 0.863 | $5.45 | −$0.17 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on November 3? · No | 0.900 | 0.875 | $5.44 | −$0.16 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on November 3? · No | 0.860 | 0.650 | $4.21 | −$1.36 |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 2? · No | 0.850 | 0.470 | $2.88 | −$2.33 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.025 | $1.36 | −$3.64 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.021 | $1.16 | −$3.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$475.72at 0.340Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?
- +$383.76at 0.500Will Trump say "China" during events with Brazilian president?
- +$310.56at 0.541Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian president?
- +$232.46at 0.522Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5)
- +$163.30at 0.476Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 13:08 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on November 2? | SELL | 0.996 | $5.95 |
| 11-02 09:38 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on November 4? | BUY | 0.87 | $5.56 |
| 11-02 09:17 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on November 4? | BUY | 0.8699999938 | $5.57 |
| 11-02 06:40 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 2? | SELL | 0.995 | $5.77 |
| 11-02 06:08 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 2? | SELL | 0.995 | $5.97 |
| 11-01 22:13 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 3? | BUY | 0.89 | $5.62 |
| 11-01 20:37 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.60 |
| 11-01 19:54 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on November 1? | SELL | 0.9968710801 | $5.72 |
| 11-01 15:15 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.8799999873 | $5.55 |
| 11-01 14:28 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.8599999815 | $5.57 |
| 11-01 12:09 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on November 1? | SELL | 0.995 | $5.74 |
| 11-01 10:31 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.07 |
| 11-01 10:30 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.65 |
| 11-01 10:30 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.54 |
| 11-01 08:18 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.997 | $5.60 |