The-Weather-Men
0x2f2ba184f8aeb66786696f4b6e64f2523aa26a39
- Realised P&L
- $-126.33
- Volume
- $17.7k
- Markets traded
- 542
- Open portfolio
- $39.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded542
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 4? · No | 0.792 | 0.770 | $9.63 | −$0.27 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 2? · No | 0.790 | 0.999 | $9.37 | +$1.96 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on November 3? · No | 0.650 | 0.565 | $6.42 | −$0.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on November 4? · No | 0.780 | 0.880 | $5.57 | +$0.63 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on November 3? · No | 0.710 | 0.840 | $4.55 | +$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on November 4? · No | 0.750 | 0.560 | $3.68 | −$1.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 30? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 30? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.26at 0.010Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?
- +$6.13at 0.392Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 14?
- +$5.94at 0.147Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 17?
- +$5.27at 0.156Will the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17?
- +$3.91at 0.562Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 13:40 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on November 4? | BUY | 0.78 | $4.94 |
| 11-02 12:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 4? | BUY | 0.792 | $9.90 |
| 11-02 12:16 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on November 4? | BUY | 0.75 | $4.94 |
| 11-02 03:24 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on November 3? | SELL | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 11-01 16:43 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on November 3? | BUY | 0.65 | $7.38 |
| 11-01 16:43 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.71 | $7.40 |
| 10-31 17:25 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.7 | $4.93 |
| 10-31 16:14 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.41 |
| 10-30 22:08 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.40 |
| 10-30 16:04 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.41 |
| 10-30 14:42 | Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.8 | $7.50 |
| 10-30 06:23 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.64 | $4.92 |
| 10-29 20:22 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $7.39 |
| 10-29 08:24 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.6846550138 | $7.44 |
| 10-29 07:33 | Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.705 | $7.05 |