opa4aa
0x2f165454005415c1311e27def683e8405dc81e38
- Realised P&L
- $-591.97
- Volume
- $64.7k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.029 | $1.3k | −$2.8k |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.140 | $69.75 | +$8.75 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.025 | $41.44 | −$153.56 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.115 | $13.69 | −$10.12 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.075 | $6.60 | −$40.89 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.516 | 0.215 | $1.51 | −$2.12 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.836 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$508.86at 0.780US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$95.06at 0.820US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$77.66at 0.406Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Korda
- +$70.05at 0.140Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
- +$40.34at 0.803Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 14:34 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $300.00 |
| 06-15 17:31 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.64 | $200.00 |
| 06-15 16:40 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.8 | $300.00 |
| 06-15 16:03 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.91 | $920.00 |
| 06-05 18:55 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $2.5k |
| 05-28 23:26 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.0k |
| 05-09 08:06 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | SELL | 0.0291579867 | $87.47 |
| 05-08 06:52 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.5k |
| 05-08 06:25 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.025 | $75.00 |
| 04-08 16:29 | Will Fabiano Caruana vs. Anish Giri end in a draw? | BUY | 0.75 | $14.77 |
| 04-08 16:29 | Will Fabiano Caruana vs. Anish Giri end in a draw? | BUY | 0.74 | $7.28 |
| 04-08 16:28 | Will Fabiano Caruana vs. Anish Giri end in a draw? | BUY | 0.73 | $14.36 |
| 04-03 16:27 | Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? | BUY | 0.95 | $15.00 |
| 04-03 16:01 | Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? | BUY | 0.79 | $20.61 |
| 04-03 16:00 | Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? | BUY | 0.78 | $20.34 |