0x6aFEf3888Cb4b4383a01de75541f41a7077A5B50-1775680812319
0x2d993073f91d2dbba37ff8c4899ff2dfa5953bd4
- Realised P&L
- $-12.91
- Volume
- $165.55
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $6.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.660 | 1.000 | $1.52 | +$0.52 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $1.49 | +$0.49 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · No | 0.920 | 1.000 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the GA-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.989 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.660 | 0.645 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.435 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.14at 0.880Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?
- +$0.13at 0.884Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
- +$0.02at 0.978Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
- +$-0.95at 0.200Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
- +$-0.97at 0.590Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 17:08 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 08-28 17:07 | Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.02 |
| 08-28 17:06 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.017 | $0.03 |
| 08-28 17:05 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 08-02 16:33 | Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 16:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 16:28 | Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? | BUY | 0.9779998494 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 16:27 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 16:27 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.494999755 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 16:08 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 15:57 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026? | BUY | 0.1889998571 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 05:19 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 05:17 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 04:42 | Will the Democratic Party win the GA-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.949999525 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 04:35 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |