selters
0x2d84c85f506f8e5e7652a442653e5eaaa82472da
- Realised P&L
- $918.01
- Volume
- $40.8k
- Markets traded
- 149
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded149
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · No | 0.742 | 0.875 | $847.95 | +$128.95 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.869 | 0.961 | $630.05 | +$60.05 |
| Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? · No | 0.927 | 0.958 | $177.56 | +$5.55 |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%? · Under | 0.930 | 0.949 | $142.86 | +$2.86 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? · No | 0.864 | 0.820 | $94.94 | −$5.06 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.460 | 0.435 | $47.28 | −$2.72 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.278 | 0.245 | $29.93 | −$3.98 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.955 | $10.27 | +$0.27 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.935 | $9.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.210 | $0.60 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$152.85at 0.702Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?
- +$113.88at 0.404Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?
- +$105.60at 0.664Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
- +$97.63at 0.660Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?
- +$92.31at 0.520 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:30 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2660101506 | $32.50 |
| 09-15 21:52 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999974 | $27.83 |
| 09-15 21:48 | Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026? | SELL | 0.937 | $28.28 |
| 09-15 07:19 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $40.00 |
| 09-12 18:45 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.79 | $40.00 |
| 09-12 18:04 | Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999887 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 13:43 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7899999978 | $40.00 |
| 09-12 13:23 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $100.00 |
| 09-12 13:23 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.4599999965 | $50.00 |
| 09-12 13:22 | Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? | BUY | 0.8636776918 | $100.00 |
| 09-12 13:20 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $140.00 |
| 09-09 07:12 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.8661554864 | $189.29 |
| 09-07 22:40 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $51.25 |
| 09-06 19:57 | Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? | SELL | 0.99 | $103.12 |
| 09-04 13:21 | Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |