wzqs
0x2d2b732a3dba4b7f790d8b08666e5707bff7b548
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $44.0k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? · No | 0.838 | 0.921 | $1.9k | +$174.55 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.885 | $442.50 | +$12.50 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.945 | $378.00 | +$30.00 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.915 | 0.935 | $320.17 | +$6.95 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No | 0.946 | 0.977 | $195.39 | +$6.20 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · Yes | 0.855 | 0.969 | $193.70 | +$22.70 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No | 0.630 | 0.805 | $147.31 | +$32.03 |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? · Yes | 0.832 | 0.893 | $89.35 | +$6.15 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.804 | 0.175 | $87.50 | −$314.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.167US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.211MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$212.56at 0.798Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
- +$79.70at 0.752Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$79.40at 0.603Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 11:22 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $77.00 |
| 07-19 09:31 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $430.00 |
| 07-19 09:26 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.91470502 | $313.22 |
| 07-17 02:27 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $32.15 |
| 07-16 22:27 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.659 | $65.90 |
| 07-15 12:48 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.71425 | $142.85 |
| 07-13 22:54 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.749 | $149.80 |
| 07-05 12:51 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $180.00 |
| 07-05 06:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $148.00 |
| 07-01 12:33 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $348.00 |
| 06-30 05:12 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY | 0.662 | $47.44 |
| 06-29 13:52 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $115.29 |
| 06-29 06:56 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY | 0.81595 | $81.59 |
| 06-29 06:56 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY | 0.794 | $4.09 |
| 06-28 12:12 | Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? | BUY | 0.892 | $89.20 |