rgess
0x2c7a1ef8bab307827b76be8e5267d8c05b406875
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $401.3k
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $511.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.185Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.261Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.411Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
- +$1.4kat 0.154Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
- +$1.1kat 0.600 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 16:31 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.37 | $76.44 |
| 08-11 04:40 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $33.00 |
| 08-10 07:47 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $8.91 |
| 08-10 07:47 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.155852187 | $4.13 |
| 08-04 11:44 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.13 | $70.20 |
| 08-04 09:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | BUY | 0.19 | $70.30 |
| 08-04 09:41 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.041 | $20.50 |
| 08-04 09:40 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $85.58 |
| 08-02 04:27 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | SELL | 0.1116666667 | $20.10 |
| 08-02 04:27 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.1882567662 | $170.35 |
| 08-01 14:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? | BUY | 0.25 | $75.00 |
| 08-01 14:30 | Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0532066667 | $15.96 |
| 08-01 14:30 | Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0479090909 | $15.81 |
| 08-01 14:29 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $40.00 |
| 08-01 14:28 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.041 | $41.00 |