PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

rgess

0x2c7a1ef8bab307827b76be8e5267d8c05b406875

Realised P&L
$-1.4k
Volume
$401.3k
Markets traded
147
Open portfolio
$511.19

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded147
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.2840.070$120.22−$368.02
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? · Yes0.4000.435$108.75+$8.75
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0140.033$95.19+$54.89
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.3260.080$39.11−$120.38
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1060.024$33.40−$114.44
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.125$31.25−$3.75
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0030.005$27.50+$12.50
5kt meteor strike in 2026? · No0.6600.880$26.40+$6.60
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? · Yes0.1000.037$22.89−$38.15
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.1560.038$3.85−$11.77
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0280.005$2.65−$10.62
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00−$105.00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? · No0.0350.000$0.00−$136.34
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? · Yes0.0840.000$0.00−$89.18
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 27? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00−$64.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-11 16:31Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?BUY0.37$76.44
08-11 04:40Iran full airspace closure by August 31?BUY0.11$33.00
08-10 07:47Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?BUY0.16$8.91
08-10 07:47Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?BUY0.155852187$4.13
08-04 11:44Iran full airspace closure by August 15?BUY0.13$70.20
08-04 09:42Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?BUY0.19$70.30
08-04 09:41Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?BUY0.041$20.50
08-04 09:40Iran full airspace closure by August 31?BUY0.22$85.58
08-02 04:27Iran full airspace closure by August 15?SELL0.1116666667$20.10
08-02 04:27Iran full airspace closure by August 31?SELL0.1882567662$170.35
08-01 14:36Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?BUY0.25$75.00
08-01 14:30Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0532066667$15.96
08-01 14:30Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0479090909$15.81
08-01 14:29Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?BUY0.08$40.00
08-01 14:28Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.041$41.00