15rob
0x2afd0dfad042ef302aad5d4480602d1a9250deb4
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $2.80M
- Markets traded
- 9,723
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded9,723
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$223.55at 0.303Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
- +$218.69at 0.003Will Cooper Kupp win the Super Bowl LX MVP?
- +$157.06at 0.004Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
- +$121.06at 0.006Will Death Stranding 2: On The Beach win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
- +$90.15at 0.006Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 00:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.05 |
| 08-17 11:25 | Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $4.83 |
| 08-15 10:11 | Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.66 |
| 08-15 00:55 | Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? | SELL | 0.241 | $3.08 |
| 08-15 00:06 | Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.832 | $4.78 |
| 08-14 22:52 | Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? | SELL | 0.352 | $3.84 |
| 08-14 10:25 | Will Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.39 |
| 08-14 09:35 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? | SELL | 0.73 | $4.60 |
| 08-13 23:25 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.69 | $4.50 |
| 08-13 23:10 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.62 | $4.01 |
| 08-13 17:15 | Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 08-13 12:19 | Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.65 |
| 08-13 11:05 | Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $2.89 |
| 08-13 09:15 | Will Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.19 |
| 08-13 09:12 | Will Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.20 |