Casadepapel
0x2ae2fbb5e31dfa10502746041c2610b3414d8b8f
- Realised P&L
- $-50.33
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 103
- Open portfolio
- $12.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded103
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.33at 0.033Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$24.54at 0.070Iran strike on US military by February 28?
- +$18.96at 0.055Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
- +$5.44at 0.155Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.00at 0.200Will Partido Popular win 25-27 seats in the 2026 Aragon regional election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 10:14 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999398 | $1.75 |
| 07-21 10:09 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.60 |
| 07-21 10:07 | Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.20 |
| 07-20 00:22 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.44 |
| 06-09 21:33 | Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2299999062 | $1.52 |
| 06-07 13:06 | Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? | BUY | 0.0374736842 | $2.67 |
| 06-01 07:11 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.129999941 | $1.85 |
| 05-27 12:44 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.179999928 | $2.00 |
| 05-22 22:01 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999305 | $2.02 |
| 05-21 08:41 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.1299999313 | $1.59 |
| 05-19 07:48 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.209999871 | $1.27 |
| 05-19 07:47 | Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election? | SELL | 0.979 | $2.00 |
| 04-28 20:24 | Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 04-10 21:08 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1449999256 | $1.50 |
| 04-10 20:58 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1549998907 | $1.00 |