PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x2a15e54c76e1ff2811749f4930f66b23c4e5f2a3

Realised P&L
$-82.79
Volume
$21.5k
Markets traded
1,138
Open portfolio
$18.12

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,138
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration81.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · No0.9200.975$5.86+$0.33
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0520.097$1.86+$0.86
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? · No0.9000.925$1.52+$0.04
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No0.7300.981$1.34+$0.34
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.7800.895$1.15+$0.15
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8600.958$1.11+$0.11
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.974$1.05+$0.05
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9200.963$1.05+$0.05
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? · No0.9400.982$1.04+$0.04
Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat? · Yes0.9400.981$1.04+$0.04
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? · Yes0.5700.565$0.99$0.01
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? · Yes0.6600.070$0.11$0.89

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 10:17Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?SELL0.999$2.18
09-14 17:52Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?SELL0.999$2.17
09-13 21:00Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?BUY0.95$2.08
09-13 20:53Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?BUY0.959999706$2.09
08-19 00:10Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?SELL0.999$2.16
08-19 00:10Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?SELL0.999$2.16
08-18 21:50Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?BUY0.96$2.08
08-18 20:12Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?BUY0.96$2.08
08-07 01:38Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?SELL0.999$5.23
08-05 03:54Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?SELL0.999$2.16
08-05 03:54Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?SELL0.999$2.18
08-03 03:32Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?BUY0.9599998154$2.08
08-01 20:17Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?BUY0.9499998173$2.08
08-01 01:27US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?SELL0.998$2.26
07-30 20:50Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?SELL0.48$1.07