ManualMan
0x2935fe10de81eae2ea73d77f342fbbbae1dbd115
- Realised P&L
- $-32.74
- Volume
- $44.4k
- Markets traded
- 128
- Open portfolio
- $0.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded128
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.97at 0.003Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?
- +$2.01at 0.023Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
- +$1.50at 0.004Chirayu Rana divorced?
- +$1.46at 0.015Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C or higher on August 2?
- +$1.46at 0.004US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 22:00 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 08-31 21:59 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 08-03 03:16 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.01 |
| 08-03 03:13 | Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.03 |
| 08-03 03:10 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.019 | $0.19 |
| 08-03 03:10 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.15 |
| 08-03 03:08 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | SELL | 0.014 | $1.12 |
| 08-03 03:08 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.11 |
| 08-03 03:05 | Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.75 |
| 08-03 03:05 | Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.15 |
| 08-03 03:05 | Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.42 |
| 08-03 03:03 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.011 | $2.31 |
| 08-03 03:03 | Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.25 |
| 08-03 03:02 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.019 | $0.95 |
| 08-03 03:01 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? | SELL | 0.013 | $1.27 |