0x27753852c32370716a1e00593dd8ccfbb6961012
0x27753852c32370716a1e00593dd8ccfbb6961012
- Realised P&L
- $6.53
- Volume
- $332.39
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $10.31
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.935 | $3.25 | +$1.06 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.775 | $2.12 | −$0.07 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? · No | 0.300 | 0.385 | $1.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.700 | 0.855 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.855 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.210 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? · No | 0.650 | 0.305 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.030 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.86at 0.278SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$5.63at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$5.05at 0.308WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on August 6?
- +$3.67at 0.379Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$3.52at 0.389S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 15:31 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 07:01 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 23:01 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:03 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 00:14 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:12 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:04 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $256 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 05:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 08:43 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:29 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 11:05 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 03:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 14? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 02:54 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 14:49 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:27 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |