0x273df4ff08fb391619656e934ade96101ed43acb
0x273df4ff08fb391619656e934ade96101ed43acb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.05
- Volume
- $206.71
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $7.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.660 | $1.69 | −$0.31 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.885 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? · No | 0.650 | 0.655 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? · No | 0.700 | 0.700 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.490 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No | 0.760 | 0.585 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $532.50 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.180 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.200 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.055 | $0.21 | −$1.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$2.40at 0.460Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
- +$2.21at 0.480Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?
- +$1.92at 0.502Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 04:26 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $532.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 04:26 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 19:57 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 09:43 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 01:23 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 15:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:11 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 21:39 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 24? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 13:28 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 05:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 05:11 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 20:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 11:15 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 02:11 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 17:28 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |