boywonder2
0x26e838bd486a63fd5daf84dc8c191bcd4b834c6f
- Realised P&L
- $-120.82
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $67.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? · No | 0.870 | 0.875 | $17.50 | +$0.10 |
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% before 2027? · No | 0.600 | 0.780 | $15.60 | +$3.60 |
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.705 | $14.10 | +$4.10 |
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.555 | $11.10 | −$1.90 |
| AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.185 | $7.40 | +$0.20 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.135 | $1.82 | −$3.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.80at 0.250Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
- +$12.06at 0.293Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
- +$5.36at 0.640Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?
- +$3.26at 0.860Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$2.68at 0.500Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3 PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 18:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $5.00 |
| 02-22 13:13 | Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.983 | $19.66 |
| 02-10 09:03 | Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.119999952 | $1.99 |
| 02-10 09:03 | Solana Up or Down - February 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $1.59 |
| 02-09 14:48 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9? | BUY | 0.4599999264 | $3.00 |
| 02-09 14:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.289999964 | $4.89 |
| 02-09 14:46 | US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.0229999944 | $4.00 |
| 02-07 21:34 | Seahawks vs. Patriots | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 21:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $0.98 |
| 01-15 14:52 | Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.18 | $9.65 |
| 01-15 14:52 | Will PNC Financial Services (PNC) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.0775213333 | $11.63 |
| 01-14 11:02 | Will Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 01-12 13:33 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 01-12 13:31 | Will BNY (BK) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.1142359983 | $20.00 |
| 12-20 12:17 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.00 |