Rishrash
0x26263f963a37e2908eb0f13cdcdfb3182b082b65
- Realised P&L
- $120.32
- Volume
- $24.1k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $44.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.715 | $34.89 | +$0.24 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.310 | $10.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.62 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.061 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.30 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$161.25at 0.124Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
- +$48.29at 0.192Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
- +$40.64at 0.088Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$20.41at 0.748Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?
- +$12.72at 0.141Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 20:50 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7099999986 | $34.65 |
| 10-30 16:06 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $13.91 |
| 10-30 16:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.0321326385 | $6.07 |
| 10-30 11:12 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $1.64 |
| 10-30 11:12 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.13 |
| 10-28 20:01 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $10.00 |
| 10-28 15:13 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0244175115 | $10.00 |
| 10-28 10:23 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0088667767 | $10.00 |
| 10-28 10:19 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 00:01 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | SELL | 0.026 | $1.36 |
| 10-25 23:47 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.1918819174 | $10.00 |
| 10-25 22:43 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | SELL | 0.11 | $60.55 |
| 10-23 16:17 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.0075092025 | $1.53 |
| 10-21 22:46 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.31 |
| 10-21 22:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | SELL | 0.0020530515 | $1.22 |