0x2583829535661016b85cea56eab41a2a5280261a
0x2583829535661016b85cea56eab41a2a5280261a
- Realised P&L
- $-158.46
- Volume
- $37.0k
- Markets traded
- 172
- Open portfolio
- $786.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded172
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$289.44at 0.363Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?
- +$184.01at 0.730Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$126.73at 0.186Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
- +$122.17at 0.819US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
- +$118.24at 0.304Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 22:02 | Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $17.42 |
| 10-01 21:00 | Will it rain in Seattle, WA on October 2? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.20 |
| 10-01 20:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.569999998 | $11.69 |
| 10-01 19:41 | Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026? | BUY | 0.2687763556 | $75.62 |
| 10-01 13:00 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11? | BUY | 0.7792168656 | $49.75 |
| 09-26 10:48 | Will Trump say "Citibank" in September? | BUY | 0.885 | $74.28 |
| 09-26 09:47 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.5 | $29.85 |
| 09-11 05:00 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | BUY | 0.0729267433 | $19.90 |
| 09-09 08:03 | Will Trump say "Amazon" in September? | BUY | 0.4599999901 | $19.48 |
| 09-09 08:00 | Will Trump say "Qualcomm" in September? | BUY | 0.22 | $16.50 |
| 09-09 06:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999991 | $218.90 |
| 09-08 06:13 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2799999997 | $96.06 |
| 09-01 08:13 | Will Andy Burnham say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.6599999942 | $29.45 |
| 09-01 08:12 | Will Andy Burnham say "Ukraine" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.7599999969 | $19.71 |
| 09-01 08:04 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $54.72 |