0x257492f3FfA9Df584Bfb0ec93d8AA0a32135144b-1776395184666
0x257492f3ffa9df584bfb0ec93d8aa0a32135144b
- Realised P&L
- $767.20
- Volume
- $99.0k
- Markets traded
- 138
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded138
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$678.35at 0.045Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
- +$228.14at 0.410Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$144.83at 0.609Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$137.56at 0.571Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$122.95at 0.610Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 05:27 | Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | SELL | 0.23 | $154.87 |
| 10-28 08:51 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $11.70 |
| 10-28 08:38 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $20.89 |
| 10-26 02:03 | US imports Russian diesel by December 31? | SELL | 0.8459251067 | $214.15 |
| 10-25 23:32 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.062 | $8.68 |
| 10-25 23:32 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | SELL | 0.01 | $4.76 |
| 10-23 06:11 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.4199999993 | $200.00 |
| 10-22 03:51 | US imports Russian diesel by December 31? | BUY | 0.7899999999 | $200.00 |
| 10-20 09:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | SELL | 0.999 | $149.85 |
| 10-20 05:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | BUY | 0.859 | $128.85 |
| 10-16 03:21 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.795 | $79.50 |
| 10-15 07:32 | Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | BUY | 0.77 | $154.00 |
| 10-15 07:23 | Will Democrats win white women in the midterms? | BUY | 0.6199999991 | $200.00 |
| 10-15 03:35 | Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | BUY | 0.2970297027 | $200.00 |
| 10-15 03:34 | Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | SELL | 0.7075 | $212.25 |