0x2558b0ca0a01c113fb6016df02fa1ab4dc8a2428
0x2558b0ca0a01c113fb6016df02fa1ab4dc8a2428
- Realised P&L
- $8.77
- Volume
- $291.48
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $12.70
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.605 | $5.76 | +$3.76 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.725 | $1.45 | −$0.03 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? · No | 0.760 | 0.550 | $1.45 | −$0.55 |
| Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · No | 0.450 | 0.315 | $1.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.340 | $1.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.100 | $0.95 | −$1.05 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.117 | $0.61 | −$1.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$2.95at 0.410Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 18:50 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.48 |
| 09-21 08:07 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 23:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 03:19 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 17:45 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 08:48 | Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 21:41 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 13:18 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 05:17 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 21:15 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 13:15 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 05:14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 03:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 03:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.4099999816 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 05:37 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |