PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

debased

0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1

Realised P&L
$1.49M
Volume
$516.03M
Markets traded
4,373
Open portfolio
$653.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,373
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.5000.536$300.4k+$20.4k
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5000.464$259.6k$20.4k
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? · No0.8090.835$18.6k+$574.70
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9100.925$10.0k+$161.65
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7560.795$8.2k+$400.23
New pandemic in 2026? · No0.8760.935$7.3k+$461.08
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4440.655$4.0k+$1.3k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9320.960$4.0k+$112.78
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.1570.145$3.2k$268.47
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No0.9100.936$3.0k+$85.05
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No0.6430.786$2.6k+$479.39
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0070.006$2.6k$602.52
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.2630.625$2.5k+$1.5k
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9640.965$2.1k+$1.11
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.945$1.6k+$41.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:24US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.55$186.98
08-02 22:24US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.34$84.87
08-02 08:44US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.57$1.0k
08-02 00:38Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.18$399.96
08-02 00:01US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.21$174.25
08-02 00:00US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.22$109.25
08-01 23:56US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?BUY0.049796334$122.25
08-01 23:53US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?BUY0.027$70.58
08-01 21:37US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.12$393.94
08-01 19:33Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.016$321.37
08-01 19:13Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL0.91$6.4k
07-30 23:09Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?SELL0.034$10.41
07-30 23:09Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?SELL0.034$13.88
07-30 22:04Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?SELL0.02$57.39
07-30 18:20NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.27$273.74