PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

debased

0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1

Realised P&L
$1.49M
Volume
$517.34M
Markets traded
4,404
Open portfolio
$697.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,404
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5000.512$301.8k+$7.4k
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.5000.487$287.1k$7.4k
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? · No0.8170.935$24.2k+$3.1k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9100.935$10.1k+$269.42
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No0.9870.995$8.3k+$59.75
New pandemic in 2026? · No0.8760.945$7.3k+$538.85
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9630.975$6.5k+$79.67
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9320.961$4.0k+$116.90
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.7100.695$3.9k$83.32
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.1450.115$3.8k$993.56
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No0.9100.961$3.1k+$163.99
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.2630.645$2.6k+$1.5k
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.0600.055$2.2k$188.00
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0070.005$2.2k$1.0k
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.0700.111$1.9k+$711.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 00:39Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.008$131.47
09-15 21:41Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.07$0.70
09-15 17:43Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.06$778.05
09-15 17:40Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.05$11.73
09-14 20:42Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.998$6.1k
09-14 16:51US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?BUY0.1674429819$137.51
09-13 19:24Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.8935184518$992.70
09-11 19:47Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.81$405.00
09-11 17:25Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.81$69.81
09-11 13:00Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.19$422.18
09-11 12:52Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.2$2.00
09-11 12:50Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?BUY0.1374131856$110.36
09-11 12:40Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.23$536.59
09-11 12:40Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.001$30.17
09-11 12:34Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.21$20.17