PolyBot

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Traders

Nasmutin

0x24c58fe04a5e039d2d4175fe59d41631a709923d

Realised P&L
$-3.6k
Volume
$726.8k
Markets traded
422
Open portfolio
$330.96

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded422
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0900.060$120.03$60.01
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0820.090$110.20+$10.20
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.2800.077$71.20$186.04
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.1300.026$28.60$114.40
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0180.002$0.93$10.07
Spread: Finland (-4.5) · Finland0.5900.000$0.00$300.00
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 4PM ET · Up0.1470.000$0.00$10.29
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4PM ET · Up0.1570.000$0.00$20.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET · Down0.1250.000$0.00$50.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11AM ET · Down0.1400.000$0.00$2.80
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 23? · Yes0.0370.000$0.00$119.19
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 3PM ET · Down0.1440.000$0.00$22.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 12PM ET · Down0.0550.000$0.00$48.00
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1620.000$0.00$161.64
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? · No0.0900.000$0.00$16.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 05:53Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0816688021$100.00
09-17 05:51Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.0560036292$112.03
09-16 16:24Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.0733084068$81.38
09-16 16:23Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.07$90.16
09-14 16:15Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.2799999999$257.24
08-30 17:46Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?BUY0.0904238592$30.00
08-27 15:49Finland vs. SwedenBUY0.6730474198$200.00
08-27 15:04Spread: Finland (-4.5)BUY0.5899999995$300.00
08-23 08:40Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0899999996$200.00
08-23 08:39Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0899999996$210.00
08-23 06:59Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0899999988$66.00
07-30 20:34Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.45$1.19
07-29 18:33Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.39$273.00
07-27 21:17Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.48$79.61
07-27 10:32Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.2338923074$262.12