Nasmutin
0x24c58fe04a5e039d2d4175fe59d41631a709923d
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $726.8k
- Markets traded
- 422
- Open portfolio
- $330.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded422
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.501Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
- +$2.5kat 0.204Will Taylor Swift be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year?
- +$2.2kat 0.612Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.8kat 0.323Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
- +$1.8kat 0.146Taylor Swift #1 album for 10 or more weeks?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 05:53 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0816688021 | $100.00 |
| 09-17 05:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0560036292 | $112.03 |
| 09-16 16:24 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.0733084068 | $81.38 |
| 09-16 16:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $90.16 |
| 09-14 16:15 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999999 | $257.24 |
| 08-30 17:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | BUY | 0.0904238592 | $30.00 |
| 08-27 15:49 | Finland vs. Sweden | BUY | 0.6730474198 | $200.00 |
| 08-27 15:04 | Spread: Finland (-4.5) | BUY | 0.5899999995 | $300.00 |
| 08-23 08:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999996 | $200.00 |
| 08-23 08:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999996 | $210.00 |
| 08-23 06:59 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999988 | $66.00 |
| 07-30 20:34 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.45 | $1.19 |
| 07-29 18:33 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $273.00 |
| 07-27 21:17 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $79.61 |
| 07-27 10:32 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.2338923074 | $262.12 |