0x2466facce2dafc341256d6a347a18f77575092a4
- Realised P&L
- $168.58
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 248
- Open portfolio
- $154.21
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded248
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.639 | 0.796 | $31.14 | +$6.14 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.730 | 0.835 | $28.60 | +$3.60 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.915 | 0.972 | $26.54 | +$1.54 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.445 | $24.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.995 | $9.95 | +$1.95 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.979 | $9.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.870 | $8.90 | −$0.10 |
| Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? · No | 0.370 | 0.855 | $6.93 | +$3.93 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.660 | 0.993 | $4.51 | +$1.51 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.935 | $3.74 | +$1.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.50at 0.160Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$78.66at 0.071Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$55.56at 0.199Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
- +$46.50at 0.290MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$42.44at 0.446Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 19:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4499999576 | $4.78 |
| 08-03 19:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4499999887 | $8.00 |
| 08-01 16:31 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999812 | $8.00 |
| 07-31 19:31 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.9939999662 | $8.00 |
| 07-31 19:19 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.4199999706 | $8.00 |
| 07-30 21:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7149999866 | $8.00 |
| 07-30 14:35 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.8379999994 | $8.00 |
| 07-29 00:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.245 | $1.11 |
| 07-29 00:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2446267628 | $7.81 |
| 07-29 00:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.245 | $1.28 |
| 07-29 00:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.245 | $2.36 |
| 07-28 13:03 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds | BUY | 0.4199999553 | $4.32 |
| 07-28 12:46 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2429999537 | $5.24 |
| 07-28 12:46 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2429999822 | $8.00 |
| 07-28 12:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2429999358 | $3.76 |