WillFS
0x22d33cd798450c3e6e3b971e58f8a26a8710c969
- Realised P&L
- $10.8k
- Volume
- $625.8k
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $20.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.3kat 0.090Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$2.0kat 0.390Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$860.00at 0.570Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$804.50at 0.598Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$590.55at 0.991No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 12:52 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.969 | $969.00 |
| 09-06 19:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September? | BUY | 0.0506471372 | $250.00 |
| 09-06 19:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | BUY | 0.0899999997 | $250.00 |
| 09-06 19:35 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.95542482 | $955.42 |
| 08-29 14:21 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8 | $514.39 |
| 08-29 14:21 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.53 | $349.80 |
| 08-19 15:27 | Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.099 | $99.00 |
| 08-07 10:35 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.398934 | $398.93 |
| 08-06 22:07 | Saturn FDV above $200M one day after launch | BUY | 0.6767349138 | $100.48 |
| 08-06 22:07 | Saturn FDV above $100M one day after launch | BUY | 0.45 | $211.50 |
| 08-06 22:03 | Saturn FDV above $100M one day after launch | BUY | 0.403191751 | $183.59 |
| 08-06 22:03 | Saturn FDV above $200M one day after launch | BUY | 0.67 | $32.48 |
| 08-06 22:02 | Saturn FDV above $200M one day after launch | BUY | 0.64 | $13.91 |
| 08-06 22:00 | Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch | BUY | 0.28 | $28.96 |
| 08-06 10:13 | Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $108.30 |