WillFS
0x22d33cd798450c3e6e3b971e58f8a26a8710c969
- Realised P&L
- $9.5k
- Volume
- $630.9k
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $22.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.3kat 0.090Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$2.0kat 0.390Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$860.00at 0.570Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$804.50at 0.598Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$590.55at 0.991No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 17:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | BUY | 0.16 | $318.56 |
| 10-08 16:32 | Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $39.00 |
| 10-08 16:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | BUY | 0.14 | $165.12 |
| 10-08 16:06 | Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7187306615 | $333.56 |
| 10-08 16:05 | Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8091818182 | $133.52 |
| 10-08 16:04 | Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6547721082 | $36.06 |
| 09-22 10:06 | QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.454497859 | $126.31 |
| 09-10 12:52 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.969 | $969.00 |
| 09-06 19:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September? | BUY | 0.0506471372 | $250.00 |
| 09-06 19:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | BUY | 0.0899999997 | $250.00 |
| 09-06 19:35 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.95542482 | $955.42 |
| 08-29 14:21 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8 | $514.39 |
| 08-29 14:21 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.53 | $349.80 |
| 08-19 15:27 | Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.099 | $99.00 |
| 08-07 10:35 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.398934 | $398.93 |